AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 4 · Final

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers, final 26–21

JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars26SFSFSan Francisco 49ers21

Pregame first read

JAX run game has the stronger league profile.

JAX run game #9/32 · SF run defense #23/32 · 144 offense / 142 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -1.5
Model total
42.5
80% range (SF margin)
-14.9 to +17.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • SF passing attack#7/32JAX pass defense#6/32
  • SF run game#23/32JAX run defense#22/32
  • JAX passing attack#18/32SF pass defense#16/32
  • JAX run game#9/32SF run defense#23/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

SFSan Francisco 49ers