AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 4 · Final

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers, final 21–24

MINMINMinnesota Vikings21PITPITPittsburgh Steelers24

Pregame first read

MIN pass defense has the stronger league profile.

PIT passing attack #19/32 · MIN pass defense #1/32 · 164 offense / 156 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -5
Model total
44.5
80% range (PIT margin)
-18.1 to +14.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • PIT passing attack#19/32MIN pass defense#1/32
  • PIT run game#29/32MIN run defense#15/32
  • MIN passing attack#32/32PIT pass defense#26/32
  • MIN run game#11/32PIT run defense#19/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MINMinnesota Vikings

PITPittsburgh Steelers