AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 4 · Final

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, final 21–27

NYJNYJNew York Jets21MIAMIAMiami Dolphins27

Pregame first read

MIA passing attack has the stronger league profile.

MIA passing attack #23/32 · NYJ pass defense #27/32 · 180 offense / 165 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIA -1.5
Model total
48.5
80% range (MIA margin)
-11.7 to +21.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#23/32NYJ pass defense#27/32
  • MIA run game#18/32NYJ run defense#15/32
  • NYJ passing attack#24/32MIA pass defense#21/32
  • NYJ run game#23/32MIA run defense#27/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NYJNew York Jets

MIAMiami Dolphins