AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 4 · Final

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 31–25

PHIPHIPhiladelphia Eagles31TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers25

Pregame first read

PHI run defense has the stronger league profile.

TB run game #15/32 · PHI run defense #11/32 · 140 offense / 115 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
PHI -1.5
Model total
49.5
80% range (TB margin)
-14.6 to +17.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TB passing attack#2/32PHI pass defense#5/32
  • TB run game#15/32PHI run defense#11/32
  • PHI passing attack#8/32TB pass defense#11/32
  • PHI run game#7/32TB run defense#5/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers