AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 4 · Final

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons, final 27–34

WASWASWashington Commanders27ATLATLAtlanta Falcons34

Pregame first read

ATL run game has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #2/32 · WAS run defense #25/32 · 149 offense / 138 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
WAS -2
Model total
49.5
80% range (ATL margin)
-15.4 to +17.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#26/32WAS pass defense#20/32
  • ATL run game#2/32WAS run defense#25/32
  • WAS passing attack#12/32ATL pass defense#17/32
  • WAS run game#6/32ATL run defense#29/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

WASWashington Commanders

ATLAtlanta Falcons