AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 5 · Final

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles, final 21–17

DENDENDenver Broncos21PHIPHIPhiladelphia Eagles17

Pregame first read

PHI pass defense has the stronger league profile.

DEN passing attack #14/32 · PHI pass defense #3/32 · 165 offense / 180 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
PHI -3.5
Model total
48.5
80% range (PHI margin)
-9.3 to +24.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • PHI passing attack#15/32DEN pass defense#10/32
  • PHI run game#17/32DEN run defense#12/32
  • DEN passing attack#14/32PHI pass defense#3/32
  • DEN run game#16/32PHI run defense#9/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DENDenver Broncos

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles