AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 5 · Final

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 28–31

KCKCKansas City Chiefs28JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars31

Pregame first read

JAX pass defense has the stronger league profile.

KC passing attack #18/32 · JAX pass defense #3/32 · 190 offense / 206 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -2.5
Model total
44.5
80% range (JAX margin)
-10.8 to +23.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#20/32KC pass defense#12/32
  • JAX run game#9/32KC run defense#22/32
  • KC passing attack#18/32JAX pass defense#3/32
  • KC run game#7/32JAX run defense#18/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

JAXJacksonville Jaguars