AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 5 · Final

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns, final 21–17

MINMINMinnesota Vikings21CLECLECleveland Browns17

Pregame first read

MIN pass defense has the stronger league profile.

CLE passing attack #32/32 · MIN pass defense #1/32 · 208 offense / 145 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -6.5
Model total
40.5
80% range (CLE margin)
-19.7 to +14.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CLE passing attack#32/32MIN pass defense#1/32
  • CLE run game#22/32MIN run defense#23/32
  • MIN passing attack#31/32CLE pass defense#20/32
  • MIN run game#15/32CLE run defense#7/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MINMinnesota Vikings

CLECleveland Browns