AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 5 · Final

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, final 23–20

NENENew England Patriots23BUFBUFBuffalo Bills20

Pregame first read

BUF passing attack has the stronger league profile.

BUF passing attack #2/32 · NE pass defense #26/32 · 169 offense / 166 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -5
Model total
48.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-8.0 to +26.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#2/32NE pass defense#26/32
  • BUF run game#1/32NE run defense#4/32
  • NE passing attack#1/32BUF pass defense#19/32
  • NE run game#30/32BUF run defense#24/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

BUFBuffalo Bills