AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 6 · Final

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons, final 14–24

BUFBUFBuffalo Bills14ATLATLAtlanta Falcons24

Pregame first read

BUF run game has the stronger league profile.

BUF run game #1/32 · ATL run defense #29/32 · 152 offense / 121 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -3.5
Model total
49
80% range (ATL margin)
-16.2 to +17.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#20/32BUF pass defense#10/32
  • ATL run game#4/32BUF run defense#26/32
  • BUF passing attack#7/32ATL pass defense#16/32
  • BUF run game#1/32ATL run defense#29/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

ATLAtlanta Falcons