AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 6 · Final

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders, final 25–24

CHICHIChicago Bears25WASWASWashington Commanders24

Pregame first read

WAS run defense has the stronger league profile.

CHI run game #30/32 · WAS run defense #14/32 · 131 offense / 140 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
WAS -4.5
Model total
50
80% range (WAS margin)
-8.6 to +24.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • WAS passing attack#13/32CHI pass defense#8/32
  • WAS run game#3/32CHI run defense#18/32
  • CHI passing attack#18/32WAS pass defense#18/32
  • CHI run game#30/32WAS run defense#14/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CHIChicago Bears

WASWashington Commanders