2025 Week 6 · Final
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, final 17–30
Pregame first read
DET run game has the stronger league profile.
DET run game #17/32 · KC run defense #30/32 · 146 offense / 124 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- DET -4
- Model total
- 54.5
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -17.2 to +17.8
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingPatrick MahomesKC257 pass yds
- RushingJahmyr GibbsDET65 rush yds
- ReceivingTravis KelceKC78 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#12/32DET pass defense#8/32
- KC run game#2/32DET run defense#4/32
- DET passing attack#1/32KC pass defense#5/32
- DET run game#17/32KC run defense#30/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
DETDetroit Lions
- Jared GoffQB · 5 games237pass yds/g
- Jahmyr GibbsRB · 5 games65rush yds/g
- Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · 5 games81.4rec yds/g
- Sam LaPortaTE · 5 games53.8rec yds/g
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 5 games251pass yds/g
- Kareem HuntRB · 5 games32.8rush yds/g
- Tyquan ThorntonWR · 5 games54.4rec yds/g
- Marquise BrownWR · 5 games51.4rec yds/g