AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 6 · Final

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins, final 29–27

LACLACLos Angeles Chargers29MIAMIAMiami Dolphins27

Pregame first read

LAC run game has the stronger league profile.

LAC run game #9/32 · MIA run defense #32/32 · 114 offense / 153 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
LAC -3
Model total
44.5
80% range (MIA margin)
-16.2 to +18.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#14/32LAC pass defense#6/32
  • MIA run game#19/32LAC run defense#18/32
  • LAC passing attack#24/32MIA pass defense#31/32
  • LAC run game#9/32MIA run defense#32/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LACLos Angeles Chargers

MIAMiami Dolphins