AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 6 · Final

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints, final 25–19

NENENew England Patriots25NONONew Orleans Saints19

Pregame first read

NO run defense has the stronger league profile.

NE run game #30/32 · NO run defense #14/32 · 122 offense / 140 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -6
Model total
43.5
80% range (NO margin)
-19.1 to +15.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • NO passing attack#26/32NE pass defense#28/32
  • NO run game#20/32NE run defense#5/32
  • NE passing attack#4/32NO pass defense#16/32
  • NE run game#30/32NO run defense#14/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

NONew Orleans Saints