AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 6 · Final

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 19–30

SFSFSan Francisco 49ers19TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers30

Pregame first read

TB run defense has the stronger league profile.

SF run game #29/32 · TB run defense #7/32 · 133 offense / 119 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
TB -4.5
Model total
51
80% range (TB margin)
-8.5 to +26.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TB passing attack#9/32SF pass defense#13/32
  • TB run game#18/32SF run defense#9/32
  • SF passing attack#10/32TB pass defense#21/32
  • SF run game#29/32TB run defense#7/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

SFSan Francisco 49ers

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers