AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 7 · Final

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers, final 38–24

INDINDIndianapolis Colts38LACLACLos Angeles Chargers24

Pregame first read

IND run game has the stronger league profile.

IND run game #1/32 · LAC run defense #18/32 · 128 offense / 131 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
IND -4.5
Model total
49
80% range (LAC margin)
-17.5 to +15.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • LAC passing attack#26/32IND pass defense#13/32
  • LAC run game#8/32IND run defense#11/32
  • IND passing attack#8/32LAC pass defense#6/32
  • IND run game#1/32LAC run defense#18/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

INDIndianapolis Colts

LACLos Angeles Chargers