AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 8 · Final

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans, final 15–26

SFSFSan Francisco 49ers15HOUHOUHouston Texans26

Pregame first read

HOU pass defense has the stronger league profile.

SF passing attack #16/32 · HOU pass defense #1/32 · 202 offense / 167 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -4
Model total
40.5
80% range (HOU margin)
-8.8 to +26.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#19/32SF pass defense#24/32
  • HOU run game#16/32SF run defense#8/32
  • SF passing attack#16/32HOU pass defense#1/32
  • SF run game#24/32HOU run defense#25/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

SFSan Francisco 49ers

HOUHouston Texans