2025 Week 8 · Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, final 23–3
Pregame first read
TB run defense has the stronger league profile.
NO run game #25/32 · TB run defense #9/32 · 131 offense / 128 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- TB -4
- Model total
- 47
- 80% range (NO margin)
- -17.0 to +17.9
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingBaker MayfieldTB152 pass yds
- RushingSean TuckerTB42 rush yds
- ReceivingRashid ShaheedNO75 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NO passing attack#24/32TB pass defense#13/32
- NO run game#25/32TB run defense#9/32
- TB passing attack#15/32NO pass defense#28/32
- TB run game#22/32NO run defense#10/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · 7 games252pass yds/g
- Bucky IrvingRB · 4 games59.3rush yds/g
- Emeka EgbukaWR · 7 games75.3rec yds/g
- Cade OttonTE · 6 games38.5rec yds/g
NONew Orleans Saints
- Spencer RattlerQB · 7 games207pass yds/g
- Alvin KamaraRB · 7 games48.9rush yds/g
- Chris OlaveWR · 7 games62.9rec yds/g
- Rashid ShaheedWR · 7 games50.9rec yds/g