AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 9 · Final

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots, final 23–24

ATLATLAtlanta Falcons23NENENew England Patriots24

Pregame first read

NE pass defense has the stronger league profile.

ATL passing attack #27/32 · NE pass defense #4/32 · 176 offense / 173 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -6.5
Model total
44.5
80% range (NE margin)
-6.8 to +28.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • NE passing attack#1/32ATL pass defense#13/32
  • NE run game#21/32ATL run defense#28/32
  • ATL passing attack#27/32NE pass defense#4/32
  • ATL run game#23/32NE run defense#6/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

NENew England Patriots