2025 Week 9 · Final
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans, final 18–15
Pregame first read
HOU pass defense has the stronger league profile.
DEN passing attack #10/32 · HOU pass defense #1/32 · 198 offense / 159 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- DEN -1
- Model total
- 40.5
- 80% range (HOU margin)
- -14.4 to +20.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingBo NixDEN173 pass yds
- RushingJ.K. DobbinsDEN61 rush yds
- ReceivingDalton SchultzHOU77 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- HOU passing attack#14/32DEN pass defense#6/32
- HOU run game#20/32DEN run defense#22/32
- DEN passing attack#10/32HOU pass defense#1/32
- DEN run game#5/32HOU run defense#12/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
DENDenver Broncos
- Bo NixQB · 8 games225pass yds/g
- J.K. DobbinsRB · 8 games79.3rush yds/g
- Courtland SuttonWR · 8 games67rec yds/g
- Troy FranklinWR · 8 games44.8rec yds/g
HOUHouston Texans
- C.J. StroudQB · 7 games232pass yds/g
- Nick ChubbRB · 7 games45.9rush yds/g
- Nico CollinsWR · 6 games56.5rec yds/g
- Dalton SchultzTE · 7 games44rec yds/g