2025 Week 9 · Final
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders, final 30–29
Pregame first read
JAX run defense has the stronger league profile.
LV run game #32/32 · JAX run defense #10/32 · 125 offense / 112 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- JAX -5
- Model total
- 43
- 80% range (LV margin)
- -18.4 to +16.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingGeno SmithLV284 pass yds
- RushingTravis EtienneJAX84 rush yds
- ReceivingBrock BowersLV127 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LV passing attack#28/32JAX pass defense#20/32
- LV run game#32/32JAX run defense#10/32
- JAX passing attack#26/32LV pass defense#25/32
- JAX run game#17/32LV run defense#20/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
- Trevor LawrenceQB · 7 games231pass yds/g
- Travis EtienneRB · 7 games73.4rush yds/g
- Brian Thomas Jr.WR · 7 games52.1rec yds/g
- Brenton StrangeTE · 5 games40.8rec yds/g
LVLas Vegas Raiders
- Geno SmithQB · 7 games202pass yds/g
- Ashton JeantyRB · 7 games63.6rush yds/g
- Brock BowersTE · 4 games56.3rec yds/g
- Tre TuckerWR · 7 games55.6rec yds/g