AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 9 · Final

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, final 21–28

KCKCKansas City Chiefs21BUFBUFBuffalo Bills28

Pregame first read

KC run game has the stronger league profile.

KC run game #6/32 · BUF run defense #25/32 · 144 offense / 141 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
KC -1.5
Model total
47.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-15.1 to +19.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#9/32KC pass defense#3/32
  • BUF run game#4/32KC run defense#19/32
  • KC passing attack#2/32BUF pass defense#5/32
  • KC run game#6/32BUF run defense#25/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

BUFBuffalo Bills