AUGRISOpen research

2025 Week 9 · Final

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, final 27–24

MINMINMinnesota Vikings27DETDETDetroit Lions24

Pregame first read

DET run defense has the stronger league profile.

MIN run game #29/32 · DET run defense #11/32 · 107 offense / 97 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DET -4.5
Model total
49.5
80% range (DET margin)
-8.8 to +26.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DET passing attack#8/32MIN pass defense#11/32
  • DET run game#11/32MIN run defense#21/32
  • MIN passing attack#16/32DET pass defense#2/32
  • MIN run game#29/32DET run defense#11/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2025 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MINMinnesota Vikings

DETDetroit Lions