2026 Week 1 · Final

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers, final 13–20

ATLATLAtlanta Falcons13PITPITPittsburgh Steelers20

Pregame first read

PIT run defense has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #29/32 · PIT run defense #8/32 · 143 offense / 108 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: ATL -1.5
Model total: 45
80% range (PIT margin): -16.1 to +18.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingAaron RodgersPIT221 pass yds
RushingBijan RobinsonATL83 rush yds
ReceivingBijan RobinsonATL90 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

PIT passing attack#19/32ATL pass defense#15/32
PIT run game#10/32ATL run defense#14/32
ATL passing attack#14/32PIT pass defense#22/32
ATL run game#29/32PIT run defense#8/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

Not enough recorded games yet.

PITPittsburgh Steelers

Not enough recorded games yet.