2026 Week 1 · Final

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts, final 41–23

BALBALBaltimore Ravens41INDINDIndianapolis Colts23

Pregame first read

BAL run defense has the stronger league profile.

IND run game #28/32 · BAL run defense #7/32 · 124 offense / 105 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: BAL -5.5
Model total: 48
80% range (IND margin): -20.2 to +13.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingLamar JacksonBAL324 pass yds
RushingDerrick HenryBAL144 rush yds
ReceivingZay FlowersBAL150 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

IND passing attack#23/32BAL pass defense#24/32
IND run game#28/32BAL run defense#7/32
BAL passing attack#7/32IND pass defense#27/32
BAL run game#1/32IND run defense#11/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BALBaltimore Ravens

Not enough recorded games yet.

INDIndianapolis Colts

Not enough recorded games yet.