2026 Week 1 · Final
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, final 36–31
Pregame first read
BUF pass defense has the stronger league profile.
HOU passing attack #25/32 · BUF pass defense #10/32 · 179 offense / 162 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- PK
- Model total
- 47
- 80% range (HOU margin)
- -14.6 to +19.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingJosh AllenBUF334 pass yds
- RushingDavid MontgomeryHOU60 rush yds
- ReceivingDalton KincaidBUF130 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- HOU passing attack#25/32BUF pass defense#10/32
- HOU run game#30/32BUF run defense#19/32
- BUF passing attack#9/32HOU pass defense#3/32
- BUF run game#2/32HOU run defense#1/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
BUFBuffalo Bills
Not enough recorded games yet.
HOUHouston Texans
Not enough recorded games yet.