2026 Week 1 · Final

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, final 10–31

DENDENDenver Broncos10KCKCKansas City Chiefs31

Pregame first read

DEN pass defense has the stronger league profile.

KC passing attack #32/32 · DEN pass defense #4/32 · 161 offense / 176 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: DEN -4
Model total: 40
80% range (KC margin): -19.0 to +15.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingPatrick MahomesKC184 pass yds
RushingKenneth Walker IIIKC173 rush yds
ReceivingTravis KelceKC71 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

KC passing attack#32/32DEN pass defense#4/32
KC run game#25/32DEN run defense#21/32
DEN passing attack#21/32KC pass defense#13/32
DEN run game#24/32KC run defense#3/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DENDenver Broncos

Not enough recorded games yet.

KCKansas City Chiefs

Not enough recorded games yet.