2026 Week 1 · Final

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, final 13–27

MIAMIAMiami Dolphins13LVLVLas Vegas Raiders27

Pregame first read

MIA pass defense has the stronger league profile.

LV passing attack #28/32 · MIA pass defense #21/32 · 153 offense / 174 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: MIA -6
Model total: 41.5
80% range (LV margin): -20.8 to +13.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingMalik WillisMIA220 pass yds
RushingAshton JeantyLV102 rush yds
ReceivingCaleb DouglasMIA94 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

LV passing attack#28/32MIA pass defense#21/32
LV run game#32/32MIA run defense#29/32
MIA passing attack#15/32LV pass defense#16/32
MIA run game#19/32LV run defense#16/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

Not enough recorded games yet.

LVLas Vegas Raiders

Not enough recorded games yet.