2026 Week 1 · Final

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, final 10–13

NENENew England Patriots10SEASEASeattle Seahawks13

Pregame first read

SEA pass defense has the stronger league profile.

NE passing attack #28/32 · SEA pass defense #2/32 · 165 offense / 174 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread: SEA -2.5
Model total: 43.5
80% range (SEA margin): -12.0 to +22.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

PassingDrew LockSEA187 pass yds
RushingJadarian PriceSEA52 rush yds
ReceivingJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA122 rec yds

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

SEA passing attack#6/32NE pass defense#3/32
SEA run game#13/32NE run defense#2/32
NE passing attack#28/32SEA pass defense#2/32
NE run game#7/32SEA run defense#9/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

Not enough recorded games yet.

SEASeattle Seahawks

Not enough recorded games yet.