2026 Week 1 · Final
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions, final 30–31
Pregame first read
NO run defense has the stronger league profile.
DET run game #31/32 · NO run defense #5/32 · 108 offense / 141 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NO -2.5
- Model total
- 45
- 80% range (DET margin)
- -17.5 to +16.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingTyler ShoughNO410 pass yds
- RushingJahmyr GibbsDET156 rush yds
- ReceivingChris OlaveNO182 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- DET passing attack#4/32NO pass defense#6/32
- DET run game#31/32NO run defense#5/32
- NO passing attack#8/32DET pass defense#13/32
- NO run game#25/32DET run defense#31/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
NONew Orleans Saints
Not enough recorded games yet.
DETDetroit Lions
Not enough recorded games yet.