2026 Week 1 · Final
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans, final 23–10
Pregame first read
TEN run defense has the stronger league profile.
NYJ run game #26/32 · TEN run defense #10/32 · 120 offense / 117 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- TEN -5.5
- Model total
- 46.5
- 80% range (TEN margin)
- -9.1 to +25.0
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingGeno SmithNYJ215 pass yds
- RushingBreece HallNYJ102 rush yds
- ReceivingGarrett WilsonNYJ79 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- TEN passing attack#27/32NYJ pass defense#32/32
- TEN run game#6/32NYJ run defense#17/32
- NYJ passing attack#31/32TEN pass defense#26/32
- NYJ run game#26/32TEN run defense#10/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
NYJNew York Jets
Not enough recorded games yet.
TENTennessee Titans
Not enough recorded games yet.