2026 Week 1 · Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals, final 27–33
Pregame first read
CIN passing attack has the stronger league profile.
CIN passing attack #10/32 · TB pass defense #25/32 · 196 offense / 161 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- CIN -3
- Model total
- 47
- 80% range (CIN margin)
- -11.6 to +22.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingJoe BurrowCIN254 pass yds
- RushingChase BrownCIN56 rush yds
- ReceivingMike GesickiCIN78 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- CIN passing attack#10/32TB pass defense#25/32
- CIN run game#8/32TB run defense#13/32
- TB passing attack#13/32CIN pass defense#17/32
- TB run game#17/32CIN run defense#24/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
Not enough recorded games yet.
CINCincinnati Bengals
Not enough recorded games yet.