AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

KCKCKansas City ChiefsATLATLAtlanta Falcons

Matchup first read

ATL passing attack has the stronger league profile.

ATL passing attack #9/32 · KC pass defense #16/32 · 158 offense / 186 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
KC -2
Model total
43
80% range (ATL margin)
-16.9 to +17.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#9/32KC pass defense#16/32
  • ATL run game#9/32KC run defense#8/32
  • KC passing attack#11/32ATL pass defense#15/32
  • KC run game#7/32ATL run defense#13/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

ATLAtlanta Falcons