AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions

NENENew England PatriotsDETDETDetroit Lions

Matchup first read

NE passing attack has the stronger league profile.

NE passing attack #2/32 · DET pass defense #31/32 · 172 offense / 219 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DET -0.5
Model total
47.5
80% range (DET margin)
-14.4 to +19.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DET passing attack#1/32NE pass defense#26/32
  • DET run game#23/32NE run defense#18/32
  • NE passing attack#2/32DET pass defense#31/32
  • NE run game#19/32DET run defense#25/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

DETDetroit Lions