2026 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 12 · 8:15 PM ET
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Matchup first read
NYG pass defense has the stronger league profile.
WAS passing attack #20/32 · NYG pass defense #3/32 · 180 offense / 164 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NYG -3.5
- Model total
- 48.5
- 80% range (NYG margin)
- -11.3 to +22.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYG passing attack#18/32WAS pass defense#19/32
- NYG run game#13/32WAS run defense#29/32
- WAS passing attack#20/32NYG pass defense#3/32
- WAS run game#16/32NYG run defense#28/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
WASWashington Commanders
- Jayden DanielsQB · 4 games190pass yds/g
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · 5 games47.8rush yds/g
- Terry McLaurinWR · 5 games46rec yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 5 games42.8rec yds/g
NYGNew York Giants
- J.J. McCarthyQB · 3 games165pass yds/g
- Cam SkatteboRB · 6 games69.7rush yds/g
- Malik NabersWR · 7 games86.4rec yds/g
- Isaiah LikelyTE · 7 games56.4rec yds/g