AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 19 · 8:15 PM ET

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

INDINDIndianapolis ColtsHOUHOUHouston Texans

Matchup first read

IND run game has the stronger league profile.

IND run game #10/32 · HOU run defense #27/32 · 146 offense / 134 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -1
Model total
49
80% range (HOU margin)
-13.9 to +20.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#4/32IND pass defense#7/32
  • HOU run game#22/32IND run defense#12/32
  • IND passing attack#28/32HOU pass defense#14/32
  • IND run game#10/32HOU run defense#27/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

INDIndianapolis Colts

HOUHouston Texans