AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

MIAMIAMiami DolphinsBUFBUFBuffalo Bills

Matchup first read

BUF passing attack has the stronger league profile.

BUF passing attack #5/32 · MIA pass defense #32/32 · 154 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -7
Model total
51.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-8.1 to +25.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#5/32MIA pass defense#32/32
  • BUF run game#1/32MIA run defense#10/32
  • MIA passing attack#26/32BUF pass defense#29/32
  • MIA run game#6/32BUF run defense#19/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

BUFBuffalo Bills