2026 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22 · 8:20 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Matchup first read
SF run defense has the stronger league profile.
MIN run game #27/32 · SF run defense #2/32 · 139 offense / 118 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- MIN -3.5
- Model total
- 39.5
- 80% range (SF margin)
- -18.3 to +15.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- SF passing attack#10/32MIN pass defense#1/32
- SF run game#3/32MIN run defense#15/32
- MIN passing attack#27/32SF pass defense#20/32
- MIN run game#27/32SF run defense#2/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
MINMinnesota Vikings
- Kyler MurrayQB · 5 games162pass yds/g
- Aaron JonesRB · 6 games72.7rush yds/g
- Justin JeffersonWR · 5 games60.4rec yds/g
- T.J. HockensonTE · 6 games39.5rec yds/g
SFSan Francisco 49ers
- Brock PurdyQB · 7 games250pass yds/g
- Christian McCaffreyRB · 7 games55.6rush yds/g
- Mike EvansWR · 6 games70rec yds/g
- George KittleTE · 7 games60.7rec yds/g