AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

NONONew Orleans SaintsCHICHIChicago Bears

Matchup first read

CHI pass defense has the stronger league profile.

NO passing attack #25/32 · CHI pass defense #11/32 · 190 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -4.5
Model total
47
80% range (CHI margin)
-10.7 to +23.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#13/32NO pass defense#22/32
  • CHI run game#20/32NO run defense#32/32
  • NO passing attack#25/32CHI pass defense#11/32
  • NO run game#25/32CHI run defense#22/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NONew Orleans Saints

CHIChicago Bears