AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

TBTBTampa Bay BuccaneersDETDETDetroit Lions

Matchup first read

TB run game has the stronger league profile.

TB run game #8/32 · DET run defense #25/32 · 161 offense / 115 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
TB -0.5
Model total
47.5
80% range (DET margin)
-15.2 to +18.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DET passing attack#1/32TB pass defense#2/32
  • DET run game#23/32TB run defense#17/32
  • TB passing attack#29/32DET pass defense#31/32
  • TB run game#8/32DET run defense#25/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

DETDetroit Lions