AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29 · 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

ATLATLAtlanta FalconsMINMINMinnesota Vikings

Matchup first read

ATL run defense has the stronger league profile.

MIN run game #27/32 · ATL run defense #13/32 · 139 offense / 118 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -5
Model total
39.5
80% range (MIN margin)
-10.1 to +23.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIN passing attack#27/32ATL pass defense#15/32
  • MIN run game#27/32ATL run defense#13/32
  • ATL passing attack#9/32MIN pass defense#1/32
  • ATL run game#9/32MIN run defense#15/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

MINMinnesota Vikings