2026 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 30 · 8:15 PM ET
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup first read
CAR pass defense has the stronger league profile.
TB passing attack #29/32 · CAR pass defense #8/32 · 158 offense / 181 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- TB -1.5
- Model total
- 47.5
- 80% range (TB margin)
- -13.4 to +20.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- TB passing attack#29/32CAR pass defense#8/32
- TB run game#8/32CAR run defense#20/32
- CAR passing attack#17/32TB pass defense#2/32
- CAR run game#12/32TB run defense#17/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
CARCarolina Panthers
- Bryce YoungQB · 6 games285pass yds/g
- Chuba HubbardRB · 6 games76.5rush yds/g
- Tetairoa McMillanWR · 6 games85.2rec yds/g
- Jalen CokerWR · 5 games65.6rec yds/g
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · 4 games170pass yds/g
- Bucky IrvingRB · 7 games79.7rush yds/g
- Emeka EgbukaWR · 6 games40rec yds/g
- Chris Godwin Jr.WR · 7 games34.7rec yds/g