AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 26 · 8:20 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

KCKCKansas City ChiefsBUFBUFBuffalo Bills

Matchup first read

KC passing attack has the stronger league profile.

KC passing attack #11/32 · BUF pass defense #29/32 · 170 offense / 214 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
KC -0.5
Model total
49
80% range (BUF margin)
-15.3 to +18.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#5/32KC pass defense#16/32
  • BUF run game#1/32KC run defense#8/32
  • KC passing attack#11/32BUF pass defense#29/32
  • KC run game#7/32BUF run defense#19/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

BUFBuffalo Bills