2026 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29 · 8:20 PM ET
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup first read
LAC run defense has the stronger league profile.
NE run game #19/32 · LAC run defense #4/32 · 139 offense / 143 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NE -5.5
- Model total
- 39
- 80% range (LAC margin)
- -20.6 to +13.4
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LAC passing attack#32/32NE pass defense#26/32
- LAC run game#28/32NE run defense#18/32
- NE passing attack#2/32LAC pass defense#10/32
- NE run game#19/32LAC run defense#4/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 7 games255pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 7 games40.7rush yds/g
- Mack HollinsWR · 4 games52.3rec yds/g
- Romeo DoubsWR · 6 games43.5rec yds/g
LACLos Angeles Chargers
- Justin HerbertQB · 6 games190pass yds/g
- Omarion HamptonRB · 6 games48.2rush yds/g
- Tre HarrisWR · 5 games45rec yds/g
- Ladd McConkeyWR · 5 games40rec yds/g