AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29 · 1:00 PM ET

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

NYJNYJNew York JetsMIAMIAMiami Dolphins

Matchup first read

NYJ passing attack has the stronger league profile.

NYJ passing attack #16/32 · MIA pass defense #32/32 · 162 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NYJ -3
Model total
42
80% range (MIA margin)
-17.7 to +16.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#26/32NYJ pass defense#24/32
  • MIA run game#6/32NYJ run defense#14/32
  • NYJ passing attack#16/32MIA pass defense#32/32
  • NYJ run game#18/32MIA run defense#10/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NYJNew York Jets

MIAMiami Dolphins