2026 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6 · 4:25 PM ET
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Matchup first read
NE passing attack has the stronger league profile.
NE passing attack #2/32 · BUF pass defense #29/32 · 172 offense / 214 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- BUF -1.5
- Model total
- 51.5
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -16.5 to +17.5
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#2/32BUF pass defense#29/32
- NE run game#19/32BUF run defense#19/32
- BUF passing attack#5/32NE pass defense#26/32
- BUF run game#1/32NE run defense#18/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
BUFBuffalo Bills
- Josh AllenQB · 6 games251pass yds/g
- James CookRB · 6 games105rush yds/g
- Dalton KincaidTE · 6 games52.5rec yds/g
- Khalil ShakirWR · 6 games48.3rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 7 games255pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 7 games40.7rush yds/g
- Mack HollinsWR · 4 games52.3rec yds/g
- Romeo DoubsWR · 6 games43.5rec yds/g