AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6 · 1:00 PM ET

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

DETDETDetroit LionsATLATLAtlanta Falcons

Matchup first read

ATL passing attack has the stronger league profile.

ATL passing attack #9/32 · DET pass defense #31/32 · 158 offense / 219 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DET -0.5
Model total
50
80% range (ATL margin)
-15.5 to +18.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#9/32DET pass defense#31/32
  • ATL run game#9/32DET run defense#25/32
  • DET passing attack#1/32ATL pass defense#15/32
  • DET run game#23/32ATL run defense#13/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DETDetroit Lions

ATLAtlanta Falcons