AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6 · 1:00 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears

JAXJAXJacksonville JaguarsCHICHIChicago Bears

Matchup first read

JAX run defense has the stronger league profile.

CHI run game #20/32 · JAX run defense #1/32 · 169 offense / 109 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -3
Model total
45
80% range (CHI margin)
-17.9 to +16.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#13/32JAX pass defense#18/32
  • CHI run game#20/32JAX run defense#1/32
  • JAX passing attack#6/32CHI pass defense#11/32
  • JAX run game#11/32CHI run defense#22/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

CHIChicago Bears