2026 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6 · 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup first read
TB pass defense has the stronger league profile.
LAC passing attack #32/32 · TB pass defense #2/32 · 171 offense / 193 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- TB -6.5
- Model total
- 39
- 80% range (TB margin)
- -8.5 to +25.5
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- TB passing attack#29/32LAC pass defense#10/32
- TB run game#8/32LAC run defense#4/32
- LAC passing attack#32/32TB pass defense#2/32
- LAC run game#28/32TB run defense#17/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
LACLos Angeles Chargers
- Justin HerbertQB · 6 games190pass yds/g
- Omarion HamptonRB · 6 games48.2rush yds/g
- Tre HarrisWR · 5 games45rec yds/g
- Ladd McConkeyWR · 5 games40rec yds/g
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · 4 games170pass yds/g
- Bucky IrvingRB · 7 games79.7rush yds/g
- Emeka EgbukaWR · 6 games40rec yds/g
- Chris Godwin Jr.WR · 7 games34.7rec yds/g