AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6 · 4:05 PM ET

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

MIAMIAMiami DolphinsDENDENDenver Broncos

Matchup first read

DEN pass defense has the stronger league profile.

MIA passing attack #26/32 · DEN pass defense #5/32 · 135 offense / 220 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DEN -5.5
Model total
40
80% range (DEN margin)
-9.7 to +24.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#21/32MIA pass defense#32/32
  • DEN run game#14/32MIA run defense#10/32
  • MIA passing attack#26/32DEN pass defense#5/32
  • MIA run game#6/32DEN run defense#11/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

DENDenver Broncos